RALEIGH, N.C. - The NRCI index for the third quarter is 44.8 and essentially unchanged from the second quarter reading of 45.0. This result leads us to think we are seeing the bottom of this long recession for nonresidential contractors. However, there isn't much this quarter indicating recessionary conditions, for nonresidential contractors at least, are going to end soon.

Most panelists see the short-term outlook as slightly less bad than last quarter, and we will take that as a good sign, even if a small one. A more important and telling sign is seen in this quarter's results for the one to three year outlooks for major construction markets. Panelists have reigned in their longer-term optimism, which seems to signal they are expecting a protracted recovery.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) hasn't yet been that stimulating for nonresidential construction and has led to a certain amount of frustration in the responses this quarter. The hope for a quick recovery has faded, and contractors are now slugging it out in the trenches trying to keep their backlogs full and facing increasing competition.

Nonetheless, this recession will end, and when it does, there is a growing sense that there will be a lot of changes in the industry. For instance, panelists expect much more work will come from the public sector than from private owners as the recession recedes, and the move to green construction continues to represent a growing trend.

NRCI Third Quarter 2009 Highlights
Overall Economy: Panelists sense the overall economy is improving significantly from last quarter with this NRCI component moving from 34.9 to 43.5. Note: this is still in recession territory, but moving in the right direction.