Construction Market Forecast

RALEIGH, N.C. - FMI, management consultants and investment bankers for the construction industry, releases its Construction Outlook: Third Quarter 2009 Report.

The outlook for the general economy is improving, but that doesn't mean good news for construction yet reports FMI's Construction Outlook, a quarterly, construction-market forecast and supplement to the U.S. Markets Construction Overview FMI has produced since 1985. Total construction in 2009 and 2010 will be down 14 percent and 5 percent respectively.

This quarter's outlook takes a more in-depth look at the trends and drivers affecting Residential, Nonresidential Buildings and Nonbuilding Structures construction.

Report highlights include:

  • Residential construction will decline 25% in 2009 and will recover in 2010.
  • Nonresidential construction will decline 13% in 2009 and 16% in 2010.
  • Nonbuilding construction will be the only positive contributor, increasing 5% per year in 2009 and 2010.
  • Project cancellations are five times the normal rate and are currently at 10% of backlog (doubled from 3Q08).
  • Total residential construction will be $268.5 billion in 2009, down from its 2006 high of $619.8 billion.
  • 2009 will be the worst year for housing starts since records began being kept in 1959.
  • Power construction is expected to remain positive for the next five years, attaining new highs each year, reaching $122.1 billion in 2013.

Heather Jones, a construction economist for FMI's Research Services Group, is responsible for design, management and performance of primary and secondary market research projects and related research activities, including economic analysis and modeling, construction market forecasting and database management. Her particular expertise is in the areas of market sizing and modeling, competitive analysis, sales and market performance evaluations, buying practices and trend analysis.

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