Dodge Momentum Index Recovers in January on Institutional and Commercial Strength

The Dodge Momentum Index rose 4.7% in January to 157.7 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 150.6. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. January’s increase reflected similar gains for the two components of the Momentum Index — institutional building, up 5%; and commercial building, up 4.6%.

Dodge Data & AnalyticsThe January increase essentially reverses December’s decline, and brings the overall Momentum Index back to November’s level. January’s reading is also consistent with the monthly average for the second half of 2018, and just slightly below the current expansion’s high mark set in July 2018. Notably, however, the commercial component remains below the highs set during the summer of 2018, while the institutional component has gained traction as public funding for projects such as schools and transportation terminals remains supportive.

In January, nine projects each with a value of $100 million or more entered planning. The leading commercial building projects were two $300 million CloudHQ data centers in Ashburn, VA. The leading institutional building projects were a $235 million arena renovation project in Phoenix, AZ, and a $140 million academic building at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, NC.