According to the latest economic forecast by the American Rental Association (ARA), data indicates a softening growth in rental revenue for the equipment rental industry in 2025.
Current projections are now indicating a 3.9 percent revenue increase, totaling $80.9 billion and a 2.9 percent growth in 2026. In March, the industry was projected to grow 5.2 percent and a 4.1 percent growth in 2026.
| Growth % | Total Revenue | |
| 2024 | 8% over 2023 | $83.3 billion |
| 2025 (March report) | 5.2% | $87.5 billion |
| 2025 (August report) | 3.9% | $80.9 billion |
| 2026 | 2.9% | not provided |
| 2027 | 4% | not provided |
In its updated forecast, the American Rental Association (ARA) indicates softening growth in rental revenue for the U.S. equipment rental industry in 2025. The most current projections indicate a 3.9 percent revenue increase in 2025 totaling $80.9 billion in construction and general tool rental revenue and a 2.9 percent growth in 2026.
This is a slight decline in forecasted growth from last quarter’s projection of a 4.2 percent increase totaling $81.2 billion. Broken down by segment, construction and industrial rental revenue (CIE) is projected to be $63.8 billion and general tool rental revenue is expected to total $17.1 billion.
“The construction and equipment rental revenue growth is softening this year from last year with inflation softening as well,” said Scott Hazelton, managing director at S&P Global, the international forecasting firm that compiles data and analysis for the ARA forecast. “The One Big Beautiful Bill [Act] does allow you to expense, therefore accelerate depreciation and this does pull some spending forward, but the overall market is not growing that fast.”
Even with a slower market overall, some manufacturers are seeing increases in rental-related sales. “[OEMs] have said they’ve seen a nice increase in their sales to rental and that segment has grown as an overall portion of their business. They think that will most likely continue and they are looking for 2026 as a slight recovery,” said Tom Doyle, ARA vice president, program development.
David Bridges, partner at Capital Counsel, also shared some insight from Washington, D.C. “As far as the rental industry is concerned, there were a number of policy wins in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Full expensing was reinstated and made permanent. Interest expensing for business debt was also restored at a higher level. And a new provision allows full expensing of manufacturing facilities for several years. This should serve as a strong incentive for domestic manufacturing,” he said.
The official release, which includes insight for the Candian equipment rental market, can be found at ARArental.org.
