The American Rental Association's latest quarterly economic forecast projects that the U.S. rental industry (comprised of construction equipment, industrial equipment, and general tool), is projected to increase by 3.4 percent this year. The ARA projected a 3.6 percent increase in their Q2 update.
Beyond 2026, revenue is projected to grow at a pace of 4.4 percent in 2027 and 5.1 percent in 2028 — slightly higher than the projections indicated in the previous quarter for these years.
Tom Doyle, ARA vice president, program development:
The latest ARA Rentalytics updates confirm the equipment rental structural changes toward rentals. The rental revenue increase indicates the preference for renting over ownership. The reasons are many for the growth, including the access to the equipment versus the asset ownership and the economics of renting. While rental revenue has increased, the results are mixed. If you have any of the large infrastructure projects or data center buildouts, you’re in a stronger market with generally better results.
Scott Hazelton, managing director at S&P Global, the international forecasting firm that compiles data and analysis for the ARA forecast, said that while U.S. growth has remained resilient, certain headwinds exist that could impact the forecast.
Noting that the larger concern for the U.S. economy is the cost of the energy and its impact on inflation, Hazelton adds:
One of the risks to the forecast is what is happening in the Middle East. The war [with Iran] is not the problem for the U.S; the problem is the transmission of inflation through energy rates — both because of lower supply and because of the risk of transporting through the Strait of Hormuz,” “If inflation stays elevated through this year, that limits what the federal reserve can do with interest rates, and in fact we’ve seen housing starts fail to move and most recently the numbers we saw for construction spend and home improvement spending was down too.
At the same time, Hazelton said the risk to the forecast of inflation through oil prices as well as through tariffs “are relatively, right now, lower-risk outcomes. It’s unlikely we’ll see a major change in the Middle East to higher prices. In fact, we think, if anything, they’ll get lower as tensions cool somewhat. And the tariff picture — the Supreme Court has already ruled on what [the government] can and can’t do.”
The ARA report included insight for the Canadian and event rental. Find the full updated announcement at Updated ARA economic forecast points to continued growth – Rental Management Media Group.
