New Report: Economic Indicators Lead to Raised 2022 Forecast

An ACT Research analysis of the North American commercial vehicle market shows improvement, reflecting better-than-expected production in June. 2023 is expected to be a good year, the report states.

An ACT Research analysis of the North American commercial vehicle market shows improvement, reflecting better-than-expected production in June. 2023 is expected to be a good year, the report states.
An ACT Research analysis of the North American commercial vehicle market shows improvement, reflecting better-than-expected production in June. 2023 is expected to be a good year, the report states.
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ACT Research has published its latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook report, which covers forecasts and market conditions for medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors and trailers, carrier insights, fuel impacts and regulatory information. 

“We are raising our 2022 forecast, reflecting better-than-expected production in June, and some easing of supply conditions, although we believe industry production will continue to be capacity constrained," said Kenny Vieth, ACT's president and senior analyst. "Our now-higher forecast remains incrementally below the OEMs’ aggregate industry build plan.” 

Addressing Federal Reserve policies, he said, "More persistent rate tightening, beyond the 100bps of additional tightening we expect through the balance of 2022, represents a downside risk to our current forecast.”

2023 is projected to be a very good year, he saiad. 

“The combination of falling freight rates, higher carrier operating costs, rising interest rates, and falling used equipment valuations represent increasing risks to vehicle demand as we move into 2023. However, while we are marking down our forecast, 2023 is still projected to be a very good year, just not as good as we were expecting, as tailwinds are blowing less hard amid rising headwinds.”

Three factors, he said, are alleviating a more severe downturn: carrier profitability, vehicle demand and pre-buy activity. 

“We continue to see at least three factors mitigating a more severe downturn.” Vieth noted, “Carrier profitability is strong, with profits at all-time record levels in 2021, and full-year TL fleet profits are pegged at second-best ever levels in 2022. Vehicle demand remains healthy, if moderating from here, with pent-up demand expected to support demand into 2023. Finally, some prebuy activity is anticipated prior to the implementation of CARB’s Clean Truck mandate, helping to support activity into year-end.”

ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. 

Read more of the report here

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