Will 2019 Be Another Successful Year for Contractors?

As 2018 comes to a close, I’d like to take this moment to reflect on the year. No doubt, it was a banner year for contractors. During my travels throughout the year, I continued to hear how busy contractors were. By most accounts, business was off the charts and I found several contractors who turned away business because they couldn’t take on any more. In other cases, contractors were seeking help from competing contractors and giving jobs away they otherwise would have completed themselves. Job growth and a high backlog suggests good news for the industry.

While 2019 appears to be another great year for contractors, overcoming the workforce shortage continues to be a challenge. According to Associated Builders and Contractors Chief Economist Anirban Basu, the low unemployment has created a construction workforce shortage of an estimated 500,000 positions.

Basu says, “As of July, there were a record-setting 6.94 million job openings in the United States, and construction unemployment reached a low of 3.6% in October.”

According to Basu’s 2019 economic outlook he stressed that a recession is unlikely in 2019. “Indicators such as the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, which often signals an economic downturn, have continued to tick higher, implying current momentum will continue for at least two to three more quarters. In addition, ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator, which reflects the amount of work that will be performed by commercial and industrial contractors in the months ahead, reported a record backlog of 9.9 months in the second quarter of 2018.”

While his 2019 forecast suggests optimism next year, he notes, “Contractors should be aware that recessions often follow within two years of peak confidence. The average contractor is likely to be quite busy in 2019, but beyond that, the outlook is quite murky.”

Basu’s economic forecast is just the first of many market forecasts to be released. It will be interesting to see what other economists are predicting in the future. One of the key economists we follow is Chief Economist for the Portland Cement Association, Edward Sullivan. His forecast is typically released at the World of Concrete next month. I’m hoping his forecast suggests brighter days beyond 2019.

In the meantime, contractors should relish the success they’ve had in 2018 and prepare to be just as successful in 2019.


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